Decisions about when, where and how environmental management actions should be implemented are based on what we think will happen in the future; for example, how natural and human systems will respond to management actions. In a paper recently published in PloS ONE, we develop a simulation model of coral reefs to provide decision support for reef management in Bolinao, the Philippines, in terms of assessing alternative management strategies under varying future climatic scenarios. Specifically we explored the extent to which the management of local stressors (namely poor water quality and fishing) might influence future reef state under different climatic scenarios relating to coral bleaching. This involved assessing the cumulative impact of these stressors. We found that management of water quality, and to a lesser extent fishing, can have a significant impact on future reef state, including coral recovery following bleaching-induced mortality. Further, by providing explicit guidance for management of Bolinao’s reef system, such as which course of management action will most likely be effective over what time scales and at which sites, we demonstrated the potential usefulness of simulation models for supporting management decisions.
The paper is freely available from PloS ONE:
Abstract
Climate change has emerged as a principal threat to coral reefs, and is expected to exacerbate coral reef degradation caused by more localised stressors. Management of local stressors is widely advocated to bolster coral reef resilience, but the extent to which management of local stressors might affect future trajectories of reef state remains unclear. This is in part because of limited understanding of the cumulative impact of multiple stressors. Models are ideal tools to aid understanding of future reef state under alternative management and climatic scenarios, but to date few have been sufficiently developed to be useful as decision support tools for local management of coral reefs subject to multiple stressors. We used a simulation model of coral reefs to investigate the extent to which the management of local stressors (namely poor water quality and fishing) might influence future reef state under varying climatic scenarios relating to coral bleaching. We parameterised the model for Bolinao, the Philippines, and explored how simulation modelling can be used to provide decision support for local management. We found that management of water quality, and to a lesser extent fishing, can have a significant impact on future reef state, including coral recovery following bleaching-induced mortality. The stressors we examined interacted antagonistically to affect reef state, highlighting the importance of considering the combined impact of multiple stressors rather than considering them individually. Further, by providing explicit guidance for management of Bolinao’s reef system, such as which course of management action will most likely to be effective over what time scales and at which sites, we demonstrated the utility of simulation models for supporting management. Aside from providing explicit guidance for management of Bolinao’s reef system, our study offers insights which could inform reef management more broadly, as well as general understanding of reef systems.
